March 2026 had some of the hottest temperatures on record across Southern Colorado and the lowest recorded snowpack since 1941. These records have increased the risk for more frequent and intense wildfires this summer, according to Geography and Environmental Studies (GES) Professor Brandon Vogt.
Snowpacks store water in the winter when snow falls and slowly release it in spring and early summer as the snow melts. Vogt consulted with other faculty members in the GES department about the unusual weather this year.
According to Vogt, long-term, high atmospheric pressure deflected winter storms away from Colorado because high pressure brings dry and warm air. The heatwaves throughout March were caused by this persistent high pressure, creating a heat dome effect over the region, according to Vogt.
Additionally, there is less water on the surface resulting in less evaporative cooling and warmer temperatures.
“Fire is my #1 concern going into summer. In particular, I worry about Cheyenne Mountain and our west side communities, as well as eastern suburbs within prairies,” Vogt said in an email.
Snowpacks are relied upon for Colorado water, supplying as much as 80% of Colorado’s water. Low snowpack levels lead to drought, which can impact agriculture, water quality and ecosystems, as well as worsen conditions for vulnerable populations, such as those with health issues.
As of April 17, the snow equivalent is less than five inches, however the median for this day is about 15 inches. Snow water equivalent determines the amount of water available in the snow.
The 2026 snow water equivalent compared to the median snow water from 1991-2020 and the snow water equivalent of 2025 can be found here.
The weather may also be affected by a super El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which occurs when average surface temperature of waters in the central Pacific Ocean is heightened 3.6°F above average.
This can affect southern Colorado’s weather by increasing rainfall this fall and next spring, although it can be difficult to determine the strength of the effects in Colorado.
“ENSO impacts to Colorado are not particularly strong because we’re sort of sandwiched between the stronger teleconnections to our north and south,” Vogt said.
Right now, there is a 61% chance of a super El Niño emerging this summer.
A warm day in Colorado Springs. Photo by Connor Strange.