The NFL Combine gives draft prospects the chance to highlight their skills in a series of drills, which will help organizations determine who they want to draft.
Prospects who light up the 40-yard dash might find themselves drafted in the first round, while someone who does not measure up to expectations might fall down the draft despite what the film says.
The weekend event is meant to compliment the 16-week season leading up to it, but lately it has felt more like it’s all that matters. It can reveal hidden athletic traits or expose player flaws, but is it really the best tool for evaluating talent when the pads go on?
Tanner – Look at the film
The NFL is so heavily driven by advanced statistics that teams are trusting the numbers more than their eyes. The combine can provide useful athletic measurements, but numbers should be used to compliment the film, not replace it.
Let’s look at some of the biggest draft-day risers and fallers, then see how their NFL careers panned out. Sample size matters, so let’s analyze the 2022 NFL Draft.
Starting with Travon Walker who was one of the biggest combine risers after he, destroyed the combine, posting elite numbers, including a 4.51 40-yard dash, which propelled him to the number one overall pick that year.
Walker has had a decent career, posting back-to-back 10 sack seasons in 2023 and 2024, but his production hasn’t fully justified being the top pick, especially considering players like Aidan Hutchinson and Nik Bonitto finished as finalists for Defensive Player of the Year despite being drafted after Walker
George Pickens was the eleventh wide receiver taken off the board in 2022. You don’t need to look further than his middle of the pack 4.47 40 and below average 33.0 vertical jump to see why so many teams passed on him.
The Pittsburgh Steelers took a flyer on Pickens in the second round and since has significantly paid off that price tag, notching his first All-Pro in 2026. There is no doubt in my mind that if we redrafted these 2022 prospects, Pickens would be in the discussion for first receiver off the board.
Ty – Don’t believe the hype
It is extremely interesting to see how much stock a team puts into players performances at the NFL Combine.
On paper you want to see speed, strength, agility, accuracy, good catching skills, etc. but I think teams put too much stock into these intangibles and don’t pay attention to real game film.
In the 2022 NFL draft, University of Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson was widely considered to be the obvious number one overall pick. In his final season of college, Hutchinson posted 14 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss, which helped him win five different awards and put him into Heisman conversations where he finished second.
At the combine, Hutchinson did well but nothing jumped off the screen. Meanwhile the aforementioned University of Georgia defensive end Travon Walker had an amazing day, showing his potential worth
Walker would end up being the number one overall pick over Hutchinson, however just four years into their careers, that is already proving to be a mistake with Hutchson almost doubling Walker’s sack numbers and already racking up one AP all-pro mention.
This has been a problem over the years because teams look too much into what a player could be instead of looking at all the player, they currently are. I love taking risks but let’s be smart and look at what really matters.
Adan – Effort matters
Let’s address the elephant in the room: The combine is a flawed way of measuring prospects. It provides a good glimpse into their athleticism, but that does not always translate to skill.
Playing football requires a high level of athleticism and physicality. There are many players who have breezed through high school and college because they were bigger, stronger and faster than everyone else.
The NFL is full of guys like that, so work ethic and the desire to improve is crucial at this level. When I look at the combine, I am not measuring athleticism as much as I am measuring effort and attitude.
First overall pick Cam Ward skipped the combine in 2025, which raised some red flags. This was shortly after choosing to play in the first half of the Pop-Tarts Bowl to pad his stats and break a record and bench himself at halftime after breaking the record.
Sure, in 20 years no one is going to measure a player’s legacy by their performance at the combine or their trophies named after pastries, but effort matters.
To me, Cam Ward seemed like a guy that was not passionate about football and will only do what’s best for himself, which is not what you want from the quarterback who is supposed to be a cornerstone of culture for a team.
These concerns were confirmed to me seeing Ward’s first season. He looked uninterested and it made me ask is he was playing for the love of the game or to pays the bills?
There are countless stories of talented players fizzling out of the league because they believed their raw talent would take them to the top. The truth is that the NFL is full of freakish athletes, so the difference maker is attitude and effort, and the combine can give a glimpse into both those traits.
Graphic by NFL.com.